There is nothing more intoxicating than victory, and nothing more dangerous.
Power has its own rhythms and patterns. Those who succeed at the game are the ones who control the patterns and vary them at will, keeping people off balance while they set the tempo.

The essence of this strategy is controlling what comes next and the elation of victory can upset the ability to control what comes next in two ways.

First one owes his/her success to a pattern that is likely to be repeated.
Many try to keep moving in the same direction without stopping to see whether that is still the direction that is best for them.

Second success tends to get into their heads and make them emotional. Feeling invulnerable, they make aggressive moves that ultimate undo the victory they gained. Success plays strange tricks on their minds. It makes them feel invulnerable, while also making them more hostile and emotional when people challenge their power.

Narc won the last elections overwhelmingly on the promises of a new Constitution, Democratic Reforms, economic revival, security and human rights among others.
The success and the goodwill which followed this victory however propelled Narc into a situation of greatest peril.

In the heat of victory, arrogance and overconfidence pushed Narc past the goals they had aimed for, gone too far and made more enemies than they defeated.

First, they ignored a President who was more than willing to hand over power. All along up until President Kibaki's inauguration Mr. Moi had the potential and reasons to plunge Kenya into chaos.

But this is one of the few occasions Mr. Moi scored very highly, as Narc was embarking on self-destruction. It was a shame seeing President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda dissuading hooliganism against Moi and shielding him from being hit with filth.

President Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania was booed for acknowledging Moi in his speech.
It was weakness, insensitivity and display of political immaturity for Kibaki's speech writers not to insert even one sentence acknowledging Moi's gesture of handing over power peacefully. And remember those frenzy homecoming Narc victory parties?
And the mother of all blackmail - the MoU. Whatever one says I think Kibaki's regime started on the wrong foot and no attempt has ever been undertaken to correct these mistakes.

While Kenyatta's regime midwifed and nursed the birth of a Nation and Moi's regime failed to articulate Kenya's growth agenda, Kibaki's regime which we expected to usher in tribal harmony may go down as the one which finally plunged Kenya into ethnic strife.
Kibaki's backers and admirers may try to use Raila as a scapegoat for the regime's failures, but the administration's shortcomings are all very clear.

One example of a very simple omission is that the administration has never bothered to sharpen its public relations skills or have a reliable think-tank strategy to fall back to whenever a need for re-strategising arose, like now.

The State House handling of the press has been disastrous. There has never been a collective government strategy or policy on information dissemination or even a cohesive government voice.

This is the vacuum which has been hijacked and filled by the likes of Mungatana, Munya, Kiraitu, wa Wamwere, Muite, Murungaru, Kiunjuri, Maitha and Ngilu.
These self-appointed or maybe Kibaki's handpicked inexperienced shortsighted spokespersons are helping in destroying his presidency.

If their voices is not his echo and if he has not unleashed anybody on NAKs perceived enemies, then the President owes it to his integrity to reprimand them once and for all.
I must point out though Kibaki's administration is what we thought the doctor ordered for Kenya - appropriate, popular, timely, democratic and an ideal vehicle for change, but unfortunately it hit the ground armed with the wrong mind-set and properties.

It is the only administration on this planet to have walked out of a popular national process claiming to have quit after failing to have its way and still refuse to do the only moral option there is - resign.

The cabinet action to walk out of Bomas III more than anything else has undermined Kibaki's leadership. There is very little confidence in his leadership. The administration unlike what some may think, will not fail or fall because of Raila or LDP or Kanu for that matter.

The virus eating Kibaki's regime started on his appointments and upon dishonouring the essence of his administration - the MoU. Unfairly he appointed many amateurs and elderly into professional and highly taxing positions.

There are those who were too mesmerized by being appointed ministers and assistant ministers. I am not sure whether some of them have come out of that stupor yet.
They think we voted for them to play power games instead of working for a change in Kenya. What could prove fatal to Kibaki's regime is his inability to judge who is best able to further his interests in all situations.

He seems to prefer friends, but the problem about working with friends is it confuses the boundaries and distances that working requires. We all know the results of working closely with his friend Matere Keriri. Of course it is his right to keep his friends for friendship but he should work with the skilled and the competent.

Sometimes friends can be employed to great effects, but always it is important to note, there is nothing stable in the realm of power, and even the closest of friends can be transformed overnight into the worst of enemies.

Sometimes back I wrote about change and why some are scared of it. Of course, Kenyan politicians are not that gullible, they know whoever initiates strong reforms often becomes the scapegoat for any kind of dissatisfaction and those who finish a revolution are rarely those who start it.

Remember, Mikhail Gorbachev of Soviet Union and close to home Kenneth Matiba, Jaramogi Odinga? Eventually the reaction to their reforms consumed them, for change is upsetting to the human beings, even when it is for the good.

Human psychology contains many dualities, one of them being that even while people understand the need for change, knowing how important it is for institutions and individuals to be renewed, they are also irritated and upset by changes that affect them personally.

They know that change is necessary and that novelty provides relief from boredom, but deep inside they cling to the past. Change in the abstract or superficial change they desire, but a change that upsets core habits and routines is deeply disturbing to them.

No change has gone without a powerful reaction against it, for in the long run the void it creates proves too unsettling to human being, who unconsciously associates such voids with death and chaos.

The opportunity for change and renewal seduces people to the side of the change, but once their enthusiasm fades, which it will, they are left with a certain emptiness.

Yearning for the past, they create an opening for it to creep back. On this account no people have more profound attachment to the past than most of the Narc politicians. And that is why they are struggling against the past, instead of turning it into their advantage. The past is always powerful.

What has happened before seems greater; habit and history give any act weight. The proponents of the new Constitution should be highly sensitive of these facts and should use this to their advantage.
Raila seems to understand this fact by his motion to ensure the Zero Draft safeguards Kibaki's tenure up to 2007. Because when the familiar is destroyed a void or a vacuum is created; people fear the chaos that will flood in to fill it.

It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out, more doubtful of success, more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things. This is the greatest challenge to the implementation of the New Constitution. Already strategies to forestall its implementation are in place.

I believe those who are opposed to the implementation know too well there is no power to be gained in letting go of their reins and adapting to whatever time brings.

They are finding ways and means to control time, otherwise they will be time's merciless victims. The move to postpone the state opening of Parliament by one week and putting off a cabinet meeting is part of this trick of controlling time so as to upset the timing of others; to make them hurry; make them wait; make them abandon their own pace; or to distort their perception of time.

By upsetting the timing of their rivals, the opponents of the new Constitution are hoping to open up time for them, which is regarded in political feuds as winning half the game. The trick is to make time in order to prepare for the Parliament onslaught to drastically change the draft Constitution. Remember the retired President played this trick just too well especially on elections.

Although snubbed by the North Eastern MPs, President Kibaki is using these tactics in meeting selected regional leaders to cajole and arm-twist them before the Parliamentary debate on the new Constitution. Sincerely I hope the President and his inner circle have seen through this snubbing, what the majorities’ mood is. Our major undoing. Our weakness as a Nation actually is the very thing at the core of our identity - tribe.

Our identity is faulty and needs to be redefined like our constitution. Faulty because we are using it for the wrong reasons. This is a virus eating at the very heart of our well-being. It is time to drop this self denial;- we all are.

Nepotism, corruption and bad governance among others in Kenya are as a result of tribalism. Unless we accept it we will never ever deal with it effectively. We never knew the extend of Kales' tribalism behavior until Moi came to town. Of course it is common knowledge about Kiuks' on the account of Kenyatta's regime and now a confirmation by the Kibaki regime. It is not going to change.

If Kalonzo or Raila come to power for example, Kaos' and Jathes' will not be different. Tribalism should be the first priority for the next administration. It is not possible to deal with it through legislation for our politicians love it.

A change in our attitude and a deliberate new way of doing business should be adopted; affirmative action maybe. There should be a serious nationwide effort, perhaps preceded by a national convention with sustainable follow-ups to tackle this monster, tribalism.

And in cognizance of Kenya's history, it would be naive to ignore claims on Raila's life threat. I believe it is time for Kenyans to find better and a civilized way of sorting out their differences. Assassinations have failed.

The assassinations of Dr. Robert Ouko, Josiah Mwangi Kariuki, Tom Joseph Mboya, Dedan Kimathi, Prof. Odhiambo Mbai, Kungu Karumba, Bishop Alexander Muge, Ambala etc. have never solved anything other than to poison the situation more.

The would be assassins and their masters may need to rethink their selfish motives and actions. The situation now is totally different from the times of the above mentioned assassinations.


It is certain Mr. Raila Amolo Odinga has read rightly the moods of the majority of Kenyans and rightly or wrong he is riding successfully on it unlike his colleagues from the Mount Kenya region. Any mistake towards this end, I believe not only will it trigger ethnic cleansing but also hasten the would be assassins and their masters demise as they miss out on their wicked goals.

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Martin Mulee is Kenyan journalist living in Köln, Germany. Martin Mule, Kierberger Str.15 D-50969, Köln, Federal Republic of Germany